James Van Geleen
James Van Geleen is managing principal at Citrinitas Capital Management LLC, Westport, Connecticut. He publishes equity research at CitriniResearch.com.
History suggests that US presidents don’t wield as much power over the broad stock market as you might think. The S&P 500 index can perform as well under a Democratic president as it does under a Republican president. But top equity analyst James van Geelen of CitriniResearch says President Trump’s use of executive orders, cabinet selections and sweeping policy changes could have a dramatic impact on specific sectors, industries and individual stocks.
Back in March 2024, van Geelen wanted to see if investors could profit from a Trump presidency. He selected a basket of 60 stocks that, based on the President’s campaign platform, speeches, interviews and predilections from his first presidency, had a high probability of thriving in a second Trump administration.
Results: From March through the week of the November election day last year, the S&P 500 rose 15%. The CitriniResearch Trump portfolio soared 87%.
Now that President Trump has taken office, Bottom Line Personal asked van Geelen which parts of the “Trump trade” look the most attractive now….
With the Republican party in control of both chambers of Congress, I’m tracking multiple themes based on President Trump’s agenda that could gain real traction and yield stock opportunities. The seven themes below range from business deregulation to increasing domestic energy production to eliminating government waste and bureaucracy.
The White House has vowed to restructure federal agencies and eliminate $2 trillion in wasteful expenditures as part of a new entity led by billionaire executive Elon Musk and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. One area ripe for chopping: Non-essential real estate and other assets. Example: The US government spends $1.7 billion a year on 770,000 empty buildings. And in a recent two-year period, the Department of Defense shelled out $1.2 billion for furniture even though it uses just 23% of the office space at its Virginia headquarters. One stock likely to benefit from DOGE…
Liquidity Services (LQDT), the world’s largest business-to-business online auction marketplace for surplus assets. It sells inventory and equipment for major business and government clients. Recent share price: $25.35.
Faced with supply-chain disruptions and a potential trade war with China, President Trump wants to incentivize and accelerate the return of manufacturing operations to the US. Onshoring is likely to drive a need for more extensive factory and farm automation to reduce the number of workers. Reason: Labor wages in the US are too high to make repatriating production cost-competitive. Plus, Trump’s stringent immigration and border polices will significantly affect agricultural labor costs, which are highly dependent on cheap seasonal migrant workers.
Stocks likely to benefit from onshoring and automation…
Rockwell Automation (ROK), which makes industrial automation devices for factories. Recent share price: $278.14.
Trimble (TRMB). This company’s hardware and software help farmers plan crops, execute farm work and track what happens in the fields. Recent share price: $69.97.
President Trump wants to cut the red tape that handcuffs American businesses and inhibits economic activity. Dialing back regulations could translate to lower compliance costs, which boosts corporate profitability. These moves include replacing officials at federal regulatory agencies that have been hostile to mergers and acquisitions, which will create more opportunities in investment banking and private equity…loosening burdensome restrictions for the for-profits education industry…and reinstituting Labor Department regulations that make it more difficult for gig workers to be counted as employees who are entitled to minimum wages and benefits. The following stocks are likely to benefit from a friendlier regulatory environment.
Capital-market financial specialists such as…
Carlyle Group (CG). Recent share price: $51.14.
Evercore (EVR). Recent share price: $300.89.
Jefferies Financial Group (JEF). Recent share price: $74.62.
For-profit education firms such as…
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE). Recent share price: $161.14.
Universal Tech Institute (UTI). Recent share price: $19.94.
Ride-hailing and food-delivery services that employ millions of gig workers such as…
DoorDash (DASH). Recent share price: $176.18.
Lyft (LYFT). Recent share price: $16.57.
Uber Technologies (UBER). Recent share price: $69.13.
Trump 2.0 has reignited discussion about the financial contributions of NATO members to their defense budgets. In the past, Trump has suggested that the US might not protect NATO countries unless they meet an annual 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) spending target. European NATO members are likely to feel heightened urgency to rapidly boost defense budgets to ensure continued US security, as well as reduce Europe’s dependence on US-made military equipment. European defense stocks that will benefit…
BAE Systems (BAESY), a British defense, security, and aerospace company and the largest weapons contractor in Europe. Recent share price: $66.82.
Rheinmetall AG (RNMBF), a German defense firm that manufactures ammunition, defense systems and tactical military vehicles. Recent share price: $623.00.
President Trump is a champion of traditional US energy. He plans several initiatives to promote energy independence and lower oil prices. These include tax breaks for oil-and-gas producers, loosening environmental restrictions on fossil-fuel production, opening federal lands for oil drilling and ending the Biden administration’s pause on US liquefied natural gas export authorizations. Stocks that benefit from domestic drilling include water-treatment and environmental technology companies that are essential to US shale-oil drilling (known as fracking), which creates vast amounts of contaminated water that needs to be treated. Three stocks that will benefit…
Aris Water Solutions (ARIS). Recent share price: $24.87.
Arq (ARQ). Recent share price: $7.92.
Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL). Recent share price: $1,420.13.
Trade policy is the area where the executive branch has historically had the most direct impact. For many US companies, tariffs increase costs across supply chains and raise consumer prices, particularly for large, multinational firms. If President Trump pursues harsher protectionist trade policies and tariffs than in his first term, those businesses with primarily domestic supply chains will have an advantage over competitors that rely on imports. Stocks that benefit from steeper US tariffs…
Arhaus (ARHS), a luxury-home furnishings retailer that emphasizes its US-based manufacturing and sourcing. Recent share price: $9.25.
BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ). Recent share price: $86.33.
Deckers Outdoor (DECK), a footwear maker. Recent share price: $176.29.
Kohl’s (KSS). Recent share price: $17.01.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised to make the US “the crypto capital of the planet.” Bitcoin soared to more than $90,000 after the Presidential election on hopes that Trump would lead the charge by appointing Securities and Exchange Commission officials who could ease regulations on crypto-company listings, exchanges, finance and mining….creating a national stash of Bitcoin…and pushing the US government to provide a clearer framework for financial institutions to market and sell crypto and other digital assets to customers. Since cryptocurrency is entirely driven by supply and sentiment-driven demand, more buyers mean higher prices. A crypto-related stock likely to benefit…
Coinbase Global (COIN). The leading cryptocurrency exchange platform in the US, which offers trading in hundreds of digital assets and does $4.3 billion worth of trading volume a day. Recent share price: $324.57.
